Irony watch: David Cameron

This week, the prime minister, David Cameron, was in China on a trade mission. During this trade mission, he helped Rolls Royce win a £750m contract in China.

Among the most important deals signed so far is Rolls-Royce's $1.2bn contract, which is to supply a Chinese airline with Trent 700 engines for 16 Airbus A330 aircraft, along with long-term servicing.

Hang on a minute! I've heard something about Rolls Royce engines recently. Oh yes, this would be the same company which makes the engines that are failing on the A380 Quantas planes and caused the £1.2bn off the company market capitalisation!

So the British buy dodgy goods from the Chinese, do we? Seems like the boot is on the other foot now.

Special Relativity in (just under) 500 words

When I was young, in the back of a car going down the motorway, I was convinced that cars coming the other way sped up as we passed each other. This because when two objects pass each other, at 70mph, from the point of view of one vehicle (it doesn't matter which, due to the symmetry of the situation) the other vehicle seems to be travelling at 140mph.

In an apparently unrelated matter, around the end of the 19th and start of the 20th century, strong evidence was found that the speed of light (in a vacuum) was constant and, importantly, appears the same to all observers.

So if I stand by the side of the motorway and measure the speed of a photon coming towards me, I will find it to be moving at 186,000 miles per second (mps). If I then jump in my car and drive very fast, say 1mps, and then measure the light coming the other way, it doesn't appear to be moving at 186,001mps. Rather, it appears to move at 186,000mps.

Given that speed is equal to distance over time, and the speed is of light is constant, then if we change distance, time must also change to balance the equation. Likewise, if we change our time perspective, then distance must change.

The point lies in the term 'relative.' There becomes no special point of view. The notion of simultaneity breaks down, and two people in different frames of reference (that is, moving at a constant speed relative to one another) can measure the same phenomenon, come up with different measurements, and both be correct.

Note that for these discussions we have to ignore acceleration and gravity, since to include those will require general relativity. Here we will only deal with special relativity.

Imagine a rowing crew running REALLY fast towards a shed. The problem is, the boat they are carrying is longer than the shed. Thankfully, the shed has doors at either end of it. The trick is try and get the whole boat into the shed and have both doors shut at the same time. Because, from the point of view of the shed keeper, the boat is moving really fast, its length is inversely related to its speed and so it appears to contract (known as Lorentz-Fitzgerald contraction); just enough for its new 'apparent' length to be shorter than that of the shed. This allows the shed keeper to shut the first door before he has to open the second door and let them out (remember that they cannot stop, as that would be an acceleration). So both doors are momentarily shut simultaneously.

But the crew do not feel this contraction, and the shed equally seems to be moving towards them at very high speed and hence, contracting. So from the point of the view of the crew, the second door is opened before the first one is shut. This paradox shows the breakdown of simultaneity.

The joys of personality tests

I just helped a friend do some research for her psychology degree. Part of this involved a personality test. I always find these things really fascinating. Without wanting bore you with the whole thing, I thought I'd treat you to a few of the highlights. Some I agree with, some I think have missed the mark - though that it is probably due to me misinterpreting some of the more ambiguous questions. Enjoy!

Your score on Extraversion is low, indicating you are introverted, reserved, and quiet. You enjoy solitude and solitary activities. Your socializing tends to be restricted to a few close friends.

Your level of friendliness is low.

Your level of assertiveness is low.

Your level of excitement-seeking is average.

Your level of Agreeableness is average, indicating some concern with others' Needs, but, generally, unwillingness to sacrifice yourself for others.

Your level of tender-mindedness is high.

Your level of modesty is average.

Your level of altruism is average.

Your level of morality is average.

Your level of trust is low.

Your score on Conscientiousness is average. This means you are reasonably reliable, organized, and self-controlled.

Your level of orderliness is average.

Your score on Neuroticism is average, indicating that your level of emotional reactivity is typical of the general population. Stressful and frustrating situations are somewhat upsetting to you, but you are generally able to get over these feelings and cope with these situations.

Your level of anger is low.

Your level of depression is high.

Your level or self-consciousness is high.

Your level of immoderation is low.

Your score on Openness to Experience is average, indicating you enjoy tradition but are willing to try new things. Your thinking is neither simple nor complex. To others you appear to be a well-educated person but not an intellectual.

Your level of imagination is average.

Your level of emotionality is low.

Your level of intellect is high. :-)

Your level of liberalism is average.

Book review: The Trial by Franz Kafka

This was my first exposure to Kafka, having heard much hype about how great a writer he was. The term Kafkaesque is often banded about, with connotations of bleakness, absurdity and circular arguments used as bureaucratic defence mechanism.

Without giving too much away, the story begins with the main protagonist waking up to find he is under arrest. He doesn’t know what he is accused of and those that are charged with informing him that he has been arrested are at bottom feeders is an enormously complicated food chain, who themselves have no idea what it is he is accused of and cannot tell him.

The unfolding of the story is the protagonist’s tale of how he is fighting his way through layers of meaningless bureaucracy in order to defend himself. Eventually, the idea of finding out what the accusation was is lost and replaced with a desperate attempt to prove himself innocent of ANY wrongdoing by giving an account of his life and presenting this through an advocate and other ‘insiders’ who may be able to help his cause. There is a constant glimpse of light at the end of the tunnel, but no matter what progress is made, that light seems as far away as ever.

With regards to the particular translation, the editors did have some failings. In particular, they made the cardinal sin of not starting a new paragraph when a new character spoke. This had the effect of making most of the paragraphs unnecessarily long, some paragraphs were 3 pages long! This made keeping track of the story a little more difficult than needed. But this may be because of my habit of usually pausing for thought half way down a page or at the next convenient juncture in the story, and in this instance I was forced to take in rather a lot before finding a suitable place for reflection.

So now that I have a slightly better idea of what Kafkaesque really means, I can see the parallels that are drawn with Orwell, and indeed a comparison to 1984 is almost inevitable. The difference has to be that Kafka’s world is not quite so far removed from our own as Orwell’s was. Already, we have control orders in place in this country where the defendants cannot see the evidence that is being used to accuse them, they have no recourse to the law and they live in a sort of semi house arrest. For that, Kafka could be said to be something of a prophet.

Considering that, it most certainly is a masterpiece and worth reading, but not if you’re looking for a light, cheery read.

Book review: The Grand Design by Stephen Hawking & Leonard Mlodinow

The inside cover of the book states that it is

“A succinct, startling and lavishly illustrated guide to discoveries that are altering our understanding and threatening some of our most cherished belief systems, The Grand Design is a book that will inform – and provoke – like no other.”

Well, it is most certainly succinct, well illustrated and thought provoking. Indeed, the book is perhaps a little too succinct. It is certainly very short, and it doesn’t take long to read. The writing style is very clear, though some of the humour does have the feeling of having been inserted periodically as an afterthought, to maintain some levity in the book.

The book is a mixture of bold statements about the current state of theoretical research and an overview of historical developments in physics over the last hundred years (with some going further back than that). One of the weak points of the book is that it lacks references. This makes it very difficult to distinguish what is widely-accepted, evidenced scientific theory and what is optimistic speculation. At one point in the book, the authors state: “M-theory is the only candidate for a complete theory of the universe.” I would certainly take issue with that, given that it is certainly not a universally accepted opinion. Any reader wanting to gain an alternative opinion on some of the bold assertions made about M-theory would do well to read Lee Smolin’s The Trouble With Physics.

Probably the most interesting claim in the book comes at the start, with the declaration that “Philosophy is dead.” This claim is never convincingly argued, and in fact the authors go on to employ certain philosophical ideas in pursuit of their goals. The entire argument of the book hinges on the acceptance of “model-dependent realism.” After a little research, it seems that this is an original term although the authors do a good job of defining it. Here, however, rhetoric has been used as a substitute for reason. There is plenty for room on this debate and so it seems that if philosophy ever had been dead, which I see no evidence of it ever having been, then this book jolts some life back into it.

There is one enormous “If” hanging over the book, which is not dealt with in sufficient detail. That is the question of experimental verifiability. M-theory is spoken of as the underlying principle behind the various string theories. Yet even these have not been confirmed by experiment. At one point, the authors state that their claims can be verified by experiment but they do nothing other than state it as though it were plain fact. No justification is given, nor experiments suggested.

It certainly well worth reading, but if anyone who has not studied the issues discussed were to read it in isolation, then they would likely end up with a highly skewed view of physics. This is a good book, worth reading, but it could have been so much better.

Am I a complete loser?

Recently, this blog was visited by someone who posted on the introductory page the following comment:

“You are a complete loser.”

Unfortunately, they did not leave a name, pseudonym or any form of contact details. The only information I could glean from the blog statistics was that their IP address was based in the USA and that they linked to the blog from the Guardian website. Without any further information, I have no way of directly contacting them to inform them of this follow-up. If the person has returned to read this, welcome back!

I cannot form any firm conclusion as to their motives for posting the comments, but there may be a few possible reasons, and I shall allow myself to indulge in a little speculation here. It seems likely to me that they had taken exception to a comment I may have made on the website, and most probably a recent one at that. So what comments had I made? Well, if they were from the USA, then it may well have been in relation to an article suggesting witty slogans to put on signs for The Rally to Restore Sanity. There are other possibilities, such as comments I made on the frequency of boys' names, a response to a disparaging remark made by a Marie Claire blogger or the best foods to eat when you are ill. Of course, it may also not be any of these. It may be someone with a general dislike for me and my values. This may be backed up by the fact that the assertion was made against the first post on this blog, where I outlined some of my values. However, without further information from the visitor, it is impossible to tell if this was due to one of them or a combination of them.

Whichever it was, the visitor did not give any reasons or evidence to back up what they said, which indicates that, rather than being a concise summary as a result of reasoned line of thinking, that this was more probably a remark made in a unthinking moment of spite. Nevertheless, I always try to think the best of people, and I shall carry on investigating the claim.

The crux of the proposition clearly lies in the last two words: “complete loser.” Note that this is distinct from just a “loser.”

According to my dictionary (Collins paperback, 1995) a loser is defined as:

1. Noun. A person or thing that loses.
2. Noun (informal) A person or thing that seems destined to fail.

In order to meet the criteria of being a complete loser, I must of course meet the definition of a loser first.

As the anonymous commenter did not put forward any evidence in support of their assertion, I cannot be certain as to which of these definitions they were thinking of. So in order to be thorough I have to consider both possibilities.

So let's see about the existence assertion of definition 1. If this is true, then it must be established that I have, on at least one occasion, lost something. Well, even though the commenter lacked any evidence to back this up, reason tells us that it is quite likely that I have lost something. Indeed, it is true. To cite one example, I have lost a game of chess. In fact, I've lost a fair few, but let's not dwell on that now! So without much further ado, we can safely say I have met the first criterion.

Now that that has been established, let's examine the evidence for definition 2. Do I seem destined to fail? This is not quite so easy to work out. For this, the commenter would need to have an understanding of my aims. This is unlikely to come from any comments on the Guardian website, so it seems far more likely to have come from their reading of my own introduction. My aim was stated that I would explore the aspects that constitute my worldview. I acknowledged that I may be wrong and am perfectly willing, when presented with compelling evidence and having weighed up alternative possibilities, to change those views. It seems strange that I could fail to explore my own views, given that that is what I have done in some of these early posts. It is like saying that I am looking in a mirror and failing to see an image of my own reflection.

So in light of that, and with no evidence presented to the contrary, it seems that I do not meet the second definition of being a loser. Because of that, under the second criterion, I cannot be a “complete loser.” However, there is still room for me to meet it under the first definition. So let's have a look at that.

Now we ought to consider the meaning of the word “complete.” My dictionary has 7 different definitions, although not all of them are applicable here. The most fitting meaning here is “absolute, thorough, not lacking anything.”

So in order to be a complete loser, all aspects of my being must meet definition 1 of being “a person that loses.” In other words, I must fail in every exercise I undertake, or else I am not a complete loser.

This is quite a strong statement if true, but being so strong it would be unquestionably refuted if a single counter-example could be found. As a fairly self-critical bloke, I think I know myself fairly well and am well-positioned to be able to find such counter-examples. For starters, there is the one achievement that I value above all others: my degree. I set out from the start with the intention of obtaining a first class masters in mathematics. I achieved this by a fairly comfortable margin four and a half years ago. I never wanted anything as much as I wanted that, I set out to get it and I was successful.

There are plenty of other examples I could post, though this is unnecessary for the purpose of the discussion and risks and element of narcissism. So I shall it there, with the conclusion that I am not, as the anonymous commenter stated, “a complete loser.”

Book review: The Drunkard's Walk by Leonard Mlodinow

I was first introduced to the writing of Leonard Mlodinow when I read Euclid’s Window as an undergraduate in mathematics. It was (and still is) one of the most delightful books on maths I have ever read. So it was with great anticipation that I looked forward to the Drunkard’s Walk.

The subtitle, How Randomness Rules Our Lives, is probably a more apt description for the book, as the question of the Drunkard's Walk is not really discussed. If you are unaware of it, it relates to the probability that a drunk person, staggering around randomly will eventually return to where they started from. Given enough time, this probability tends towards 100% if they travel in two dimensions, but not if they travel in three dimensions. So if you're looking for an explanation of why, this is not the book for you.

Rather, this is about probability and statistics. The mathematics in it is not particularly technical, although there are some concepts in it that seem to go against common sense. In fact, common sense is a running theme throughout the book; but only insofar as how unreliable common sense can be (here I am distinguishing between “common” sense and “good” sense). The book takes us on a wide and varied journey through history, sports, finance, gambling and medicine, amongst other things, looking at the way in which chance events are commonly understood, how they should be understood and getting to grips with the consequences of what happens when there is a gap between the two.

It is written in a highly engaging way, with enough humanity in it to keep the lay reader interested and just enough technical detail for the more mathematically minded to stay the course. There are, however, a few small points to pick up on. Mlodinow himself is a physicist, not a statistician . This results in a couple of explanations appearing a little muddled. For example, his explanation of why the probability of two independent events both occurring should be multiplied together may not be clear to someone without any maths knowledge beyond GCSE level.

The slightly bigger issue is in his philosophical interpretation of randomness. There is very little discussion over different interpretations of randomness and of what probabilistic measures mean. The conclusion that Mlodinow seems to reach is that it applies to unpredictability. However, in various places throughout the book, he seems to get this confused with purposelessness, which leads to a few unjustified conclusions on specific matters.

That said, this is a minor distraction in an otherwise excellent book.